ASSIGNMENT #3

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Mail to: HCAC on MUSICB from your HC-- MUSICB code

Assignments mailed from any other E-Mail account will

TA: Stefan Ikonomovski

Weight: 30

Due Date: 11th October

This assignment has to be done in FORTRAN 90, using the LAHEY

www.lahey.com

or this is available in the EMF.

See the documentation on the LAHEY website for installation

90 source code should be the ELF90 directory with the compiler

for easy operation.

NOTE: Look at the NOTES on MUSIC B for doing this and the

other assignments.

Introduction:

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"Predictive Model" is a model where one to few important Y-variables are

predicted from a few X-variables that can be obtained easily from

standard maps or standard monitoring programs.

"Statistical models" are derived from purely statistical considerations

about the parameters in the system and their relationships. It is often very

difficult to establish causal relationships among the factors and the effect

variables, over certain range of conditions.

"Deterministic models" are based not solely on statistical analysis of the

available data, but also on the presuppositions of the modeler. (This

often means that the modeler decides how the model should behave).

"Step-by-step predictive models" predict a desired variable in several steps

in such a way that one or more of the model variables used to predict are

themselves predicted variables.

Models can be described ether by mathematical links among the parameters

of the system or by rules based on a statistical analysis or a knowledge

of human experts.

Problem statement:

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The Government of one country wants to predict the budget for the year 2000.

The crucial datum is the Population number at that time. Suppose that you

have been hired in order to analyze the data from the previous censuses and

to establish Statistical Step-by-step Predictive model "Population of a

country". After careful analysis you have obtained the following model:

- birth rate = 2.2% population

- death rate = 1 % population

- immigration = 1.2% population

- emigration = 0.3% population

- population(year) = population(year-1) +

birth_rate(year-1) - death_rate(year-1) +

immigration(year-1) - emigration(year-1)

Assuming the Population number of 30 million in the year 1992:

a) print the output table with the values for the respective parameters of

the model starting from the year 1992 up to date.

YEAR POP BIRTH DEATH IMM EM

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1992 30

1993

1997

b) What would be the difference between the number of immigrants and

the number of emigrants in the y.2000 ? (BONUS 10%)