ASSIGNMENT #3
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Mail to: HCAC on MUSICB from your HC-- MUSICB code
Assignments mailed from any other E-Mail account will
IGNORED !! (i.e. Receive a grade of ZERO!!)
TA: Stefan Ikonomovski
Weight: 30
Due Date: 2nd October
This assignment has to be done in FORTRAN 90, using the LAHEY
compiler, which you can download for free from
www.lahey.com
or this is available in the EMF.
See the documentation on the LAHEY website for installation
and running programs on your own machine. Note your FORTRAN
90 source code should be the ELF90 directory with the compiler
for easy operation.
NOTE: Look at the NOTES on MUSIC B for doing this and the
other assignments.
Introduction:
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"Predictive Model" is a model where one to few important Y-variables are
predicted from a few X-variables that can be obtained easily from
standard maps or standard monitoring programs.
"Statistical models" are derived from purely statistical considerations
about the parameters in the system and their relationships. It is often very
difficult to establish causal relationships among the factors and the effect
variables, over certain range of conditions.
"Deterministic models" are based not solely on statistical analysis of the
available data, but also on the presuppositions of the modeler. (This
often means that the modeler decides how the model should behave).
"Step-by-step predictive models" predict a desired variable in several steps
in such a way that one or more of the model variables used to predict are
themselves predicted variables.
Models can be described ether by mathematical links among the parameters
of the system or by rules based on a statistical analysis or a knowledge
of human experts.
Problem statement:
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The Government of one country wants to predict the budget for the year 2000.
The crucial datum is the Population number at that time. Suppose that you
have been hired in order to analyze the data from the previous censuses and
to establish Statistical Step-by-step Predictive model "Population of a
country". After careful analysis you have obtained the following model:
- birth rate = 2.2% population
- death rate = 1 % population
- immigration = 1.2% population
- emigration = 0.3% population
- population(year) = population(year-1) +
birth_rate(year-1) - death_rate(year-1) +
immigration(year-1) - emigration(year-1)
Assuming the Population number of 30 million in the year 1992:
a) print the output table with the values for the respective parameters of
the model starting from the year 1992 up to date.
Your output should look like:
YEAR POP BIRTH DEATH IMM EM
---------------------------------------
1992 30
1993
1997
b) What would be the the difference between the number of immigrants and
the number of emigrants in the y.2000 ? (BONUS 10%)