ASSIGNMENT #3 ============= Mail to: HCAC on MUSICB from your HC-- MUSICB code Assignments mailed from any other E-Mail account will IGNORED !! (i.e. Receive a grade of ZERO!!) TA: Stefan Ikonomovski Weight: 30 Due Date: 2nd October This assignment has to be done in FORTRAN 90, using the LAHEY compiler, which you can download for free from www.lahey.com or this is available in the EMF. See the documentation on the LAHEY website for installation and running programs on your own machine. Note your FORTRAN 90 source code should be the ELF90 directory with the compiler for easy operation. NOTE: Look at the NOTES on MUSIC B for doing this and the other assignments. Introduction: -------------- "Predictive Model" is a model where one to few important Y-variables are predicted from a few X-variables that can be obtained easily from standard maps or standard monitoring programs. "Statistical models" are derived from purely statistical considerations about the parameters in the system and their relationships. It is often very difficult to establish causal relationships among the factors and the effect variables, over certain range of conditions. "Deterministic models" are based not solely on statistical analysis of the available data, but also on the presuppositions of the modeler. (This often means that the modeler decides how the model should behave). "Step-by-step predictive models" predict a desired variable in several steps in such a way that one or more of the model variables used to predict are themselves predicted variables. Models can be described ether by mathematical links among the parameters of the system or by rules based on a statistical analysis or a knowledge of human experts. Problem statement: ------------------ The Government of one country wants to predict the budget for the year 2000. The crucial datum is the Population number at that time. Suppose that you have been hired in order to analyze the data from the previous censuses and to establish Statistical Step-by-step Predictive model "Population of a country". After careful analysis you have obtained the following model: - birth rate = 2.2% population - death rate = 1 % population - immigration = 1.2% population - emigration = 0.3% population - population(year) = population(year-1) + birth_rate(year-1) - death_rate(year-1) + immigration(year-1) - emigration(year-1) Assuming the Population number of 30 million in the year 1992: a) print the output table with the values for the respective parameters of the model starting from the year 1992 up to date. Your output should look like: YEAR POP BIRTH DEATH IMM EM --------------------------------------- 1992 30 1993 1997 b) What would be the the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants in the y.2000 ? (BONUS 10%)